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THE IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTY SHOCKS
Adjustment costs uncertainty real options labor and investment
2015/7/15
Uncertainty appears to jump up after major shocks like the Cuban Missile crisis, the assassination of JFK, the OPEC I oil-price shock, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks. This paper offers a structural fr...
Computing Optimal Uncertainty Models from Frequency Domain Data
Computing Optimal Uncertainty Models Frequency Domain Data
2015/7/10
Uncertainty models are an essential ingredient in robust control design. In addition, because of the tradeoff between uncertainty and performance, the uncertainty model should be as ‘tight’ as possibl...
OPERA: Optimization with Ellipsoidal Uncertainty for Robust Analog IC Design
Statistical optim ization
2015/7/10
As the design-manufacturing interface becomes increasingly complicated with IC technology scaling, the corresponding process variability poses great challenges for nanoscale analog/RF design. Design o...
Likelihood Bounds for Constrained Estimation with Uncertainty
Likelihood Bounds Constrained Estimation Uncertainty
2015/7/10
This paper addresses the problem of finding bounds on the optimal maximum a posteriori (or maximum likelihood) estimate in a linear model under the presence of model uncertainty. We introduce the nove...
Robust efficient frontier analysis with a separable uncertainty model
Robust efficient frontier analysis separable uncertainty model
2015/7/10
Mean-variance (MV) analysis is often sensitive to model mis-specification or uncertainty, meaning that the MV efficient portfolios constructed with an estimate of the model parameters (i.e., the expec...
Regular Analog/RF Integrated Circuits Design Using Optimization with Recourse Including Ellipsoidal Uncertainty
Confi gurable design optimization with recourse
2015/7/9
Long design cycles due to the inability to predict silicon realities are a well-known problem that plagues analog/RF integrated circuit product development. As this problem worsens for nanoscale IC te...
Why Has U.S. Policy Uncertainty Risen Since 1960?
policy uncertainty polarization government
2015/6/8
There appears to be a strong upward drift in policy-related economic uncertainty after
1960. We consider two classes of explanations for this rise. The first stresses growth in
government spending...
Business Value Analysis: Coping with Unruly Uncertainty
Business Value Analysis Coping with Unruly Uncertainty
2015/1/26
How executives can make smart decisions in the unruly uncertainty created by the digital economy? We all want to make rational decisions based on sound analysis of real data, but is it possible?
Capturing Data Uncertainty in HighVolume Stream Processing
Data flow system data collection data modeling the sensor data
2014/12/24
We present the design and development of a data stream system that captures data uncertainty from data collection to query processing to final result generation. Our system focuses on data that is nat...
The effects of uncertainty under a cap-and-trade policy on afforestation in the United States
land-use change greenhouse gas emissions commodity prices
2014/11/27
To combat climate change, cap-and-trade policies have been proposed and implemented in countries around the world. The stochastic carbon price that results from a cap-and-trade policy makes investment...
An Empirical Analysis of Environmental Uncertainty, Realoptions Decision Pattrns and Firm Performance
Environmental Uncertainty Real Options Decision Patterns Firm Performance
2014/10/28
Real options theory has become an influential explanatory and normative framework for making resource allocation decisions. Despite a growing body of strategy research regarding real options, however,...
Capacity Value of Additional Generation: Probability Theory and Sampling Uncertainty
Power system planning Power system operation Power system reliability Risk analysis Wind energy
2013/6/17
The concept of capacity value is widely used to quantify the contribution of additional generation (most notably renewables) within generation adequacy assessments. This paper surveys the existing pro...
Model-based dose finding under model uncertainty using general parametric models
Model-based model uncertainty parametric models
2013/6/13
Statistical methodology for the design and analysis of clinical Phase II dose response studies, with related software implementation, are well developed for the case of a normally distributed, homosce...
A QUALITY ANALYSIS AND UNCERTAINTY MODELING APPROACH FOR CROWD-SOURCING LOCATION CHECK-IN DATA
Crowd-sourcing Location check-in Quality analysis Spatial registration Uncertainty Error distribution
2014/4/24
The location check-in data, developing along with social network, are considered as user-generated crowd-sourcing geospatial data.
With massive data volume, abundance in contained information, and h...
Adding a systematic uncertainty to the signal estimation in the on/off-zone measurements
Adding a systematic uncertainty the signal estimation in the on/off-zone measurements
2013/4/28
The measurements with the background estimation from an off-zone are widely used in astrophysics, accelerator physics and other areas. Usually, the expected number of the background events in the off-...