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The Future of Indirect Evidence
statistical learning experience of others Bayesian and frequentist
2015/8/20
Familiar statistical tests and estimates are obtained by the direct observation of cases of
interest: a clinical trial of a new drug, for instance, will compare the drug's e ects on a relevant set of...
Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist events
Estimating the historical future probabilities large terrorist events
2012/11/23
Quantities with right-skewed distributions are ubiquitous in complex social systems, including political conflict, economics and social networks, and these systems sometimes produce extremely large ev...
We show how the shared information between the past and future|the excess entropy|derives
from the components of directional information stored in the present|the predictive and retrodictive causal s...
Recent lab experiments by Traulsen et al. [1] for the spatial pris-oner’s dilemma suggest that exploratory behavior of human subjects prevents cooperation through neighborhood interactions over exper-...
We show how the shared information between the past and future|the excess entropy|derives
from the components of directional information stored in the present|the predictive and retrodictive causal s...
We show how the shared information between the past and future---the excess entropy---derives from the components of directional information stored in the present---the predictive and retrodictive cau...
Weakly regular T2 symmetric spacetimes. The global geometry of future developments
regular T2 symmetric spacetimes global geometry future developments
2011/3/4
Under weak regularity assumptions, only, we develop a fully geometric theory of vacuum
Einstein spacetimes with T2–symmetry, establish the global well-posedness of the initial value
problem for Eins...
Weakly regular T2 symmetric spacetimes. The global geometry of future developments
regular T2 symmetric spacetimes global geometry of future developments
2011/3/4
Under weak regularity assumptions, only, we develop a fully geometric theory of vacuum
Einstein spacetimes with T2–symmetry, establish the global well-posedness of the initial value
problem for Eins...
A paradox of altruism: How caring about future generations can result in poverty for everyone （game-theoretic analysis）
Nash bargaining solution
2010/9/13
Political and social activists are rightfully concerned about future generations: whenever a country borrows money, or an environmental situation worsens, this means, in effect, that we impose an addi...