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基于灰色马尔可夫模型的装备故障间隔期预测研究
概率论 灰色马尔可夫模型 预测 故障间隔期
2015/4/10
针对武器装备故障间隔期预测的难点,提出了在灰色GM(1,1) 模型的基础上建立灰色马尔可夫组合模型进行故障间隔期的预测。在分析典型电子装备故障率曲线的基础上,根据电子装备的故障特点,形成合理的建模背景,建立组合模型对装备故障间隔期进行预测。通过实例对预测值和真实值进行比较,表明在“少数据冶、“贫信息冶、“ 不确定冶的情况下利用该组合模型预测故障间隔期的有效性,有效降低预测误差,提高预测精度。
针对火箭助飞鱼雷作战方式及弹道形式与传统声自导鱼雷的不同,深入分析了搜索区域、落点散布和目标散布等影响火箭助飞鱼雷捕获概率的关键因素,得出了各要素的数学描述。进而综合考虑3 个要素的相互关系,并根据不同射击方式下目标散布模型的本质区别,分别采用“误差综合冶与“全概率冶的思想,构建了前置点和现在点2 种典型射击方式下火箭助飞鱼雷捕获概率的解析模型。且其计算值与仿真实验结果吻合良好。
Branching diffusion in the super-critical regime
Branching diffusion the super-critical regime Probability
2012/7/11
We investigate the long-time evolution of branching diffusion processes (starting with a single particle) in inhomogeneous media. The qualitative behavior of the processes depends on the intensity of ...
Transition densities for stochastic Hodgkin-Huxley models
Hodgkin-Huxley model degenerate diffusion processes non time homogeneous diffusion processes Malliavin calculus Hormander condition
2012/7/11
We consider a stochastic Hodgkin-Huxley model driven by a periodic signal as model for the membrane potential of a pyramidal neuron. The associated five dimensional diffusion process is a time inhomog...
On the Distribution of Critical Points of a Polynomial
Critical Points Polynomial Probability
2012/7/11
This paper proves that if points $Z_1,Z_2,...$ are chosen independently and identically using some measure $\mu$ from the unit circle in the complex plane, with $p_n(z) = (z-Z_1)(z-Z_2)...(z-Z_n)$, th...
Local Eigenvalue Density for General MANOVA Matrices
MANOVA random matrix Jacobi ensemble Local density of eigenvalues
2012/7/9
We consider random $n\times n$ matrices of the form $(XX*+YY*)^{-1/2}YY*(XX*+YY*)^{-1/2}$, where $X$ and $Y$ have independent entries with zero mean and variance one. These matrices are the natural ge...
The conformal loop ensemble CLE_kappa is the canonical conformally invariant probability measure on non-crossing loops in a proper simply connected domain in the complex plane. The parameter kappa var...
Random matrices: Universality of local spectral statistics of non-Hermitian matrices
Random matrices non-Hermitian matrices Probability
2012/6/30
It is a classical result of Ginibre that the normalized bulk $k$-point correlation functions of a complex $n \times n$ gaussian matrix with independent entries of mean zero and unit variance are asymp...
Heavy tailed solutions of multivariate smoothing transforms
Heavy tailed solutions multivariate smoothing transforms Probability
2012/6/29
Let $N > 1$ be a fixed integer and $(C_1,..., C_N,Q)$ a random element of $GL(d, \R)^N x \R^d$. We consider solutions of multivariate smoothing transforms, i.e. random variables $R$ satisfying $$R \eq...
Critical Gaussian Multiplicative Chaos: Convergence of the Derivative Martingale
Critical Gaussian Multiplicative Chaos Convergence of the Derivative Martingale Probability
2012/6/29
In this paper, we study Gaussian multiplicative chaos in the critical case. We show that the so-called derivative martingale, introduced in the context of branching Brownian motions and branching rand...
On the (strict) positivity of solutions of the stochastic heat equation
the stochastic heat equation Probability
2012/6/30
We give a new proof of the fact that the solutions of the stochastic heat equation, started with non-negative initial conditions, are strictly positive at positive times. The proof uses concentration ...
Symmetric exclusion as a model of non-elliptic dynamical random conductances
Random conductances law of large numbers invariance principle particle systems
2012/6/30
We consider a finite range symmetric exclusion process on the integer lattice in any dimension. We interpret it as a non-elliptic time-dependent random conductance model by setting conductances equal ...
Central limit theorems for open quantum random walks
Central limit theorems quantum random walks Probability
2012/6/27
Open Quantum Random Walks are the exact quantum generalization of Markov chains on finite graphs or on nets. These random walks are typically quantum in their behavior, step by step, but they seem to ...
We define a new diffusive matrix model converging towards the $\beta$-Dyson Brownian motion for all $\beta\in [0,2]$ that provides an explicit construction of $\beta$-ensembles of random matrices that...
The circular law asserts that the spectral measure of eigenvalues of rescaled random matrices without symmetry assumption converges to the uniform measure on the unit disk. We prove a local version of...